Friday, October 8, 2010

Will Scotland have luck again for the upcoming Euro 2012 qualifier

It is not often Scotland get to welcome the reigning world and European champions to Hampden – but Craig Levein’s men must not let their focus drift beyond Prague tonight.Put simply, the Euro 2012 qualifier against the Czech Republic holds far greater significance for the Scots than Tuesday’s meeting with Spain in Glasgow.The draw in Warsaw back in February was not kind on Scotland – not because it dropped them into a group involving the most sparkling international team of this generation, but because, just as with the previous World Cup qualifying campaign, it left them in the smallest possible group made up of just five teams.That means another truncated, do-or-die campaign with no minnows with which to build confidence against. This could not have been made more apparent by Scotland’s last outing, a nail-biting 2-1 win over Liechtenstein at home, which prompted a good deal of soul-searching amongst supporters and critics. At the same time, the Czechs were losing to Lithuania at home. So after a night of fraught nerves, Scotland emerged atop Group I, with their biggest rivals for second place and a potential playoff spot having lost to a lesser team at home.This is why tonight’s match carries so much significance. A draw, and the Czech Republic will likely have to win at Hampden next September and better Scotland’s results against Spain to live up to their position as second seeds in the group. Victory in Prague, and suddenly Levein, from staring at a bleak campaign before Stephen McManus’ 96th-minute winner against Liechtenstein, could begin thinking the unthinkable and attempt to beat Spain to first in the group and the only automatic qualifying place. Levein, as is his nature, has bluntly admitted that his team will be ultra-defensive tonight with the sole aim of stymieing the Czechs. A 4-2-2-2 formation was being worked on in training earlier this week, but the personnel within that may have to change as injuries continue to mount.Even still, a draw would not only be a result that boosted Scotland’s chances of reaching their first major finals since 1998, it is also realistically attainable. Levein’s first game in charge was against the Czechs in a friendly last March, and Scott Brown scored the only goal in a 1-0 win at Hampden.This time, 0-0 really would be enough. For inspiration, Scotland need only look at the organisation and tenacity (albeit over zealous at times) with which Liechtenstein played against them last month, or indeed to Rangers’ resolutely defensive performance against Manchester United in the Champions League barely a week later.You would think it would be easy enough, but Scotland have been hopeless on their travels in the past three years. The high-water mark of recent times was a 1-0 win over France in Paris in September 2007, achieved thanks to an incredible rearguard effort and a once-in-a-lifetime strike from James McFadden.As our table above shows, it has been one-way traffic towards Scotland’s goal since. Amongst those eight defeats are embarrassing reverses in Wales, Norway, Macedonia and Georgia. In only two of those 10 matches have Scotland even scored - and their last six away matches have brought zero goals for and 15 against.George Burley, wrongly, tried to make Scotland a more attacking force without ever having the players to achieve it. Levein was brought in to steady the ship. Now is the time to weigh anchor.

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